Latest Results
each run is a game · Day-5 score, 500 hPa pattern, Northern Hemisphere
Awards of the Week
the last seven days of verified cycles
Power Rankings
ranked by Elo, updated every cycle · click a column to sort, a row to open the model
| Rk | 7d | Model | Elo | Day 5 | Day 7 | Day 10 | W–L (30d) | Wins | Streak | Last 10 | Day-5 trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading standings… | |||||||||||
Score = anomaly correlation × 100 for 500 hPa heights, 20–80°N (100 is perfect; below 60 the pattern forecast stops being useful). HOME marks a model graded against its own centre's analysis. OFF marks a model with no recent runs: its rating is frozen and it drops out of the ranking.
League Table: AI vs Physics
every AI-vs-physics matchup of the last 30 days
The Race
rolling 30-day Day-5 score · hover for the standings on any day
The Dieoff
how skill decays with lead time: who stays useful longest
Score by lead time
last 90 days · the line at 60 is the conventional limit of a useful forecast
Regional scores
Day-5 score by region, last 90 days · outlined = best in region
More scorecards
the board is growing
Station forecasts vs reality
NBM, NWS, HRRR-MOS, RRFS-MOS and a dozen more, checked every day against the official high, low and rain at 1,200 U.S. stations.
LiveHumans vs Machines vs Money
NWS forecasters, the National Blend, raw models and the prediction market, scored on daily high temperatures at U.S. stations.
Live · 2026 seasonHurricane League
NHC's official forecast vs every hurricane model, on track and intensity, storm by storm.
LiveHead-to-Head
Pick any two models. See the all-time record, recent form and every cycle they've played.
Season Outlook Scorecard
CSU, NOAA, TSR, the Met Office and others: hurricane season counts, graded when the season ends.
Climate Outlooks
CPC 6–10 day, monthly and seasonal outlooks, scored with the Heidke skill score.
Your Forecast
Put your own daily high on the board against NWS, the models and the market.