The Daily-High Board
mean absolute error in °F by lead time · lower is better · outlined = best at that lead
Each source is scored on every station-day it forecast, so sample sizes differ (hover a cell for n). NWS gridded forecasts stop at Day 7.
Error growth with lead time
°F mean absolute error · hover for every source at that lead
The Money Line
the prediction market as a forecaster: its price-implied expected high, one day out
Next-day high, mean absolute error
Closest on the day
share of station-days each source finished nearest the observed high (ties split)
Week by week
next-day mean absolute error · the market in colour, everyone else in grey · hover for names