Human vs. the Machine · forecast offices

The forecaster’s edge, office by office.

Follow NDFD’s value across the National Weather Service. Every office gets its own station map, temperature ribbons, heat map and matched model scorecard.

WFONOAA forecast-area boundariesNational station comparison →
Temperature
Score window

Loading office verification…

Where the forecaster adds valueSelect an office to explore its stations
Subtracts valueModel MAE − NDFD MAE · °FAdds value
The office desk
How value changes with forecast leadSelected model · all offices in these filters
How offices are compared

Office value is the selected model’s mean absolute error minus NDFD’s error, calculated from the same station-days, element and decision lead. Positive values mean NDFD reduced error. Each matched case has equal weight; an office with more stations contributes more station-days.

Stations are assigned by their coordinates in the original NOAA CWA polygons, valid April 16, 2026. The map geometry is simplified for display. This breakdown covers the 116 CONUS offices represented in the current station network. Office pages retain the common 12Z cutoff, accepted official observations, and source timing used by the national comparison.

Results describe these sampled stations. Models have different station coverage, and small samples should be read alongside the paired counts. Missing or held observations are unscored. NDFD is the forecaster-edited grid, rather than a record of individual forecaster decisions.